How to Read the 2024 Primary Polls

author
Dr. Louis Perron
blog post louis

In the surveys for the 2024 Republican primary, Donald Trump is for sure ahead. He polls at around 50%. And that’s the key point: virtually all Republican primary voters know Donald Trump, yet only half of them vote for him. The other half does not vote for him and I don’t see what he could possibly tell them that would make them change their minds. In other words, he is ahead, but his potential to grow is severely limited. And at this point in time, that’s the main thing to look at in the surveys as they otherwise mostly reflect the awareness levels of the candidates.