Transition of Power in the USA

Dr. Louis Perron
blog post louis

Barack Obama delivered an emotional farewell address last week. He is one of the most skilled politicians alive when it comes to public speaking and has built his entire career on speeches. It therefore doesn’t come as a surprise to me that his speech was a firework. Awarding the country’s highest civilian honor, the Presidential Medal of Freedom, to Joe Biden was just another illustration of the dignity with which he ends his term.

Soon Donald Trump will move into the White House. He won the election with 46% of the vote. Ever since his victory speech on election night, he has done little to reach out to the majority of the country that did not vote for him. That’s part of the reason why in almost every poll, more voters see Trump unfavorably than favorably. As he enters the White House, he is the President-elect with the least public support since the beginning of polling. Democrats anyways see Trump as sort of an operational accident.

This will make the mid-term elections of 2018 crucially important. In a way, it will be the second round of the 2016 presidential election. In this respect, it is important to remember the highly disputed 2000 presidential election where Al Gore won the popular vote, but George Bush won the majority in the Electoral College. Two years later, Republicans won a great victory in the mid-term elections, which gave George Bush’s presidency an important boost.

If Trump is smart, he will reach out and try to build some consensus around his key priorities, namely job creation, and get it done. One thing that President Trump has going for him in that respect is that he doesn’t owe any favors to Republican leaders in Congress. He won it without them. This being said, early signs indicate that he will govern the way he campaigned, namely in a divisive and confrontational way.

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