Stop Looking at Nationwide Polls for the Democratic Presidential Nomination

Dr. Louis Perron
blog post louis

Stop looking at nationwide polls for the Democratic presidential nomination. Joe Biden still leads the race for the nomination in nationwide polls, but this is of little help because it’s not a nationwide election. It’s a state by state election. It is therefore more revealing to look at the state polls in states who have early primaries and caucuses. In Iowa, for example, Biden is now running at forth place behind Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. The former Vice President is also running behind Elizabeth Warren in New Hampshire. I don’t easily see what new information Biden could give voters there to make them reconsider voting for him. He is known commodity. While the Ukraine phone call scandal was obviously not good news for President Trump, it is also working against Biden. I am just flabbergasted how politically unprepared Biden apparently went into this race. Trump is now running ads in the early primary states attacking Biden. This is quite remarkable as I don’t remember any incumbent president interfering directly with tv ads in the primary of the other party. On top of that, it looks like Michael Bloomberg, multi-billionaire and former Mayor of New York, is moving closer to jumping into the race. If he does, he would likely add to Biden’s problems because Bloomberg would compete for the votes of moderate primary voters.

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