The Race for the White House Has Gotten Closer

Dr. Louis Perron
blog post louis

It has not been a great couple of weeks for Hillary Clinton. Her comment about the “deplorables”, insulting Trump voters as well as questions about her health have obviously hurt her campaign. It is not clear how the latest New York and New Jersey attacks will affect the campaign. If Trump were a generic Republican candidate, it would probably help him. But he has demonstrated time and again that he is all but a generic Republican candidate. However, it looks like Trump’s new campaign manager Kellyanne Conway was able to instill some discipline to the campaign, which is a key factor. I always tell my clients that discipline wins elections. As a result of all this, the race has gotten closer. Some surveys (both nationwide and in crucial swing states) now show Trump ahead, some still see Hillary in the lead (but definitely with a smaller lead than during the month of August). This being said, it probably still is Hillary who has the edge. Her campaign manager, Robby Mook, recently put out a memo arguing that Clinton has a much wider path to the needed 270 electoral votes. Indeed, traditional swing states such as Ohio and Florida are “must-wins” for Trump. On the other hand, if Trump can’t break away one of the states that is leaning Democratic, Clinton basically just has to win Florida, Ohio OR North Carolina in order to move to the White House. Also, the fact that the race got closer is not entirely bad news for Clinton as it gives her campaign and her (rather uninspired) base a purpose, namely to stop Trump. But she needs to use the debates in order to change the dynamics of the campaign and win back the momentum, which seemed to have slipped away from her to Trump. This is dangerous as I often tell my clients: Which campaign would you rather be? Run two points ahead, but lose the momentum, or run two points behind and have the momentum on your side? A few days before the election it’s better to be the first one while a few months before the election it’s better to be the second one. And with barely seven weeks to go? Tough call.

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