Last week, Donald Trump was indicted again. I just find it flabbergasting that journalists and other people who have actually never won an election, seem to think that this is good for his campaign.
As for myself, I have worked for more than a hundred politicians and candidates and none of them ever conveyed to me that being indicted would be a desirable thing for their respective campaign.
Did you also notice that in all the indictments, there was barely a crowd showing up to support the former president?
That said, there might be a short-term rallying effect in the polls among Republican primary voters. But in terms of predicting the results, these early polls are close to meaningless. The Republican primary has not even started yet for real. There will be month of campaigning to come. At this point in time, Trump leads in the surveys because he is the most known.
As for swing voters, who are the ones who will ultimately decide who will move into the White House, I can’t imagine a scenario in which they look at Trump’s legal troubles and think that they want more of it.
Also keep in mind that the polling market in the US is completely screwed up. Polls were unreliable in 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. In fact, in 2016, even the exit polls, which used to be the most reliable surveys, said that Hillary Clinton won the election. It was corrected once the real results came in.